Low vig favourites betting strategy

Vig, the margin baked into the odds, is the tax every bettor pays. When a market closes with almost no vig, the bookmaker is confident and the prices are close to true probabilities. This template studies favourites in exactly those ruthlessly efficient markets.

How the filter tree works

• Vig range: measured on the favourite's moneyline markets over its last 20 matches, the average closing vig must sit between 0 and 3%.

Low vig is a market-quality signal: it marks matches where Pinnacle sharpened prices the most.

What to watch

• Efficient markets are the hardest to beat by definition. This template is a reality check as much as a strategy; expect results hugging the margin.
• The value of the exercise is the baseline: any other system should be compared against how it fares in tight markets.
• Vig varies by league and volume, so this filter indirectly selects big competitions.

Tweaks to try

• Flip the range to 5%+ to hunt soft markets instead, then compare the two runs.
• Add an odds range to focus on a specific favourite price band.
• Combine with form filters to see if any signal survives efficiency.

Run both versions through backtesting on Pinnacle closing odds for football and study the gap.