Backtest football betting strategies on 10 years of odds

Football is our deepest dataset: 10 years of Pinnacle closing odds across leagues worldwide. Design a rule-based strategy and see how it would have performed, bet by bet.

What you can backtest in football

Football offers the full market catalogue on 10 years of Pinnacle closing odds:

3-way moneyline: home, draw or away
Asian handicaps from -0.75 to +0.75
Totals from 1.5 to 3.5 goals and team totals up to 4 goals

Every simulated bet settles against real closing prices, so your backtest reflects odds you could actually have taken. Learn more about how backtesting works and the Pinnacle historical odds behind it.

Filters that shine for football

Football is the only sport with both a both-teams-to-score rate filter and our mxG model, a Poisson read of expected goals inverted from closing lines. Combine them with:

League standing, standing gap and season phase for motivation angles
Promoted teams and league result rates
Odds range, implied probability, closing vig and league liquidity

Popular football angles

Bettors use the builder to test home underdogs in low-vig leagues, overs in high-BTTS competitions, late-season matches between mid-table sides, and fading promoted teams away from home. Browse public strategies for inspiration, then start building for free.

Markets you can backtest

Moneyline1X2, three-way

Spread / handicap (goals)-0.75 … 0.75

Totals (goals), over/under1.5 … 3.5

Team totals0.5 … 4

Ready-made strategies for this sport

Home favourites The clear home favourite at short-ish odds: combines the favourite-side and odds-range filters.Major leagues only Keep only high-liquidity leagues: a one-filter way to avoid thin, soft markets.Weekend goals Over 2.5 goals on weekend fixtures: pairs a day-of-week filter with a totals odds range.Follow one team Only matches involving a specific team: shows how the team-name filter works.Home on a win streak Home side has won its last 3 matches: the simplest result-streak filter.Unbeaten at home Home side unbeaten in its last 5 home games: result streak scoped to the venue.Hot away form Away side has won 60%+ of its last 10: a form-rate window instead of a streak.Head-to-head edge Home side won 60%+ of recent meetings with this opponent (min 3 games).Head-to-head win run Home side won the last 2 meetings with this exact opponent.High-scoring home side Home team averaging 1.8+ goals scored over its last 20: a goals-average filter.Leaky away defence Away team conceding 1.5+ goals on average over its last 20: the conceded dimension.Over 2.5 machines Home team hit 3+ total goals in 60%+ of its last 20: a scoring-rate threshold.Clean-sheet run Home team kept a clean sheet in each of its last 3 home games: a scoring streak.Efficient markets Favourites whose moneyline closing vig sat under 3%: a tight, sharp-priced market.Soft total lines Home matches where the totals market carried a wider vig: softer, less efficient lines.Reliable coverers Home team covered the closing spread in 60%+ of its last 20 (min 5 games).Well rested Home team has had at least 5 days off: a simple rest-days filter.Fresh legs Home team played at most 3 matches in the last 14 days: a match-density fatigue guard.Single season slice Restrict to weekend matches in one year: handy for isolating a season when backtesting.Value home favourites Home favourite + decent odds + solid recent form + a major league: four filters stacked.Contrarian underdogs Away underdog that is EITHER in good form OR owns the head-to-head: an AND wrapping an OR.Streaks, not Mondays On a home win streak AND NOT early in the week: shows how a NOT group excludes cases.Low-scoring unders Major-league weekend unders where the home side barely scores: a four-filter goals model.Momentum stack Home favourite riding a win streak, strong recent form and fresh legs: momentum layered up.

Backtest your own strategy

Free to start, years of real Pinnacle odds, no card required.