Closing Line Value Calculator
Enter the odds you took and the odds the market closed at. A positive CLV means you beat the close, the most reliable evidence of a real edge.
What the calculator returns
- Closing line value: taken odds divided by closing odds, minus one. Take 2.10 on a line that closes 1.95 and your CLV is +7.7%.
- Probability shift: the implied probability at close minus the implied probability at your price, in points. The market moved 3.7 points towards your side in the example.
- Expected value: the profit per unit you should expect if the closing price is the true probability. With only one closing price this includes the margin; enter the closing odds of the other side and the calculator de-vigs the close first, which is the honest version.
Why CLV predicts profit
The closing line of a sharp book is the most accurate probability available anywhere, because every bet placed before kick-off has pushed it towards the truth. Beating it consistently means you are systematically buying above fair value, and profit follows over a large enough sample. Win-loss records take thousands of bets to separate skill from luck; CLV is visible on every single bet. The closing line value guide covers the reasoning in depth.
Which closing price to use
Use the price at the same book and the same line, ideally Pinnacle, where the low margin makes the close a clean reference. If the line itself moved (a spread from -3.5 to -4), the comparison is no longer like for like.
In the Strategy Builder
Every live pick of a followed strategy is tracked against the Pinnacle close, and backtests settle at closing prices while showing how the line moved from opening on the situations a rule set selects. That is CLV measured over years rather than one bet at a time.
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Frequently asked questions
Can I beat the close and still lose?
Yes, on any single bet and over short runs. CLV is about expectation, not outcome: keep beating the close over a few hundred bets and the results catch up with the expectation.
How much CLV is enough?
You need to beat the no-vig closing price, so a CLV above the bookmaker margin on that market. At a sharp book that is roughly 2% to 3%; the de-vigged expected value in the results tells you directly whether you cleared it.
Why enter the closing odds of the other side?
Because the raw closing price includes the margin. With both sides the calculator computes the fair closing probability and the expected value against it, which is the number that matters for long-term profit.
Backtest your own strategy
Free to start, years of real Pinnacle odds, no card required.